A long-simmering crisis people have long shrugged off is quickly blowing up

One website in particular from among private citizens’ global military and intelligence sites held a debate on whether or not the DEFCON warning system should move from the current 5 to level 4. The majority argued persuasively in favor of maintaining the defense readiness system at 5 while a loud minority argued it should be raised to 4 even tho nothing has happened beyond localized, sporadic fighting in the Donbas, large-scale and threatening-appearing military maneuvers, which is one of the reasons countries engage in such behavior, petty name calling between the leaders, and doom porn by the few news media remotely aware of what’s happening. Another site, however, recently escalated to DEFCON 4 as military mobilizations far from Ukraine and saber-rattling has turned to repositioning doomsday weapons. What threat level is realistic here without getting caught up in alarmism or turn dismissive and in denial? 

Yes, D5 is currently warranted. Isn’t there a greater chance of a hot-headed nuclear exchange between Pakistan & India? Then again, we are seeing a deliberative, incremental movements by the various sides (Russia/China/NK/Belarus/maybe Iran/maybe Pakistan/maybe even Turkey versus NATO (minus Turkey?)/EU/the Five Eyes/the Quad/Taiwan/SK/USA) to position and reposition their forces. The two primary sides are not monolithic. Putin & Xi are driven by historically-rooted insecurities to secure the mammoth Eurasian “heartland” from invasions & other threats as well as to avenge their respective countries’ pasts. While at face value the aggressors have clearly been the governments of Russia and China, another perspective holds the United States regime is the actual aggressor as it moves its globe-spanning military around the planet to hem in and bully the Eurasian giants from their historic imperial realms. What other nation-state has nearly a thousand military bases and intelligence sites placed across Earth?

History demonstrates the United States is protected by its geographical uniqueness with mostly nonthreatening borders. Russia and China, however, for centuries act from learning the best defense is offense and so they need to expand their borders and then build buffer states along those borders. The problem with these competing POVs, however, is, one,  Americans are often oblivious to history and geography and far too often see a distant nation conquering another as a direct threat to the USA. Secondly, land-based empires don’t know when to stop expanding. They keep building out and enlarging their realms and creating more vassals and buffer states until they either collapse from these unsustainable empires or collide in titanic wars with others. No one wins in the end when there are at least two mutually oppositional nation-states on this planet. History keeps repeating itself until someday Humanity may wise up to see the value of a unified, integrated democratic socialist world republic.

Considering what is at stake for everyone, doesn’t anyone think Putin & Xi would at least agree to synchronize any plans for all-out assaults on, say, Ukraine & Taiwan? Especially as both may be viewed as “test wars” as Ukraine & Taiwan fall outside global alliance structures even as they may pull in other countries esp the USA for Taiwan? I don’t think Russia & China will move beyond Ukraine & Taiwan right away as those two states must be pacified, occupied, and integrated.

What do you think? Would Xi & Putin even inform Kim Jong-un so NoKo can attack South Korea/ROK while the Americans are distracted with Taiwan & Eastern Europa? The reality is the pandemic and its corresponding recession have hollowed out the economies of nearly all of the possible antagonists, especially those hit by sanctions. Xi & Putin would be gambling the economic distress in the West is severe enough to distract the US, NATO, the Quad, SK, etc., from mounting an effective defense and counterattack. Their most likely allies, Belarus, Syria, Iran, & DPRK, are severely affected by the pandemic, recession, sanctions, or, in Syria’s case, civil war. Belarus forces did engage in recent maneuvers with the Russians. Military forces, however formidable, require economic sustenance. More likely these recent maneuvers are saber-rattling, attention getting, distractions for their own distressed populations and to warn off the West during times of global unrest.

While accidents, close calls, and localized fighting may and probably will happen, I do not see nuclear war on the near horizon. The threat is certainly there. The Defcon threat level is wise to stay the present course at 5. If there are synchronized mobilizations by China and Russia, or even by NATO & the Quad, I would then reassess going to 4.

Would coordinated all-out conventional military attacks by Russia on Ukraine only and China on Taiwan only warrant DEFCON 4 if the counterthreat efforts by the West remain non-nuclear? Yes, for then the various nuclear powers become even closer to using nukes under duress even if the facts show using nukes isn’t necessary. All the facts, truths, histories, perceptions of reality, and woulda-coulda-shouldas don’t mean squat as all pale before fear, want, hurt, anger, pride, and the power of belief systems.

Meanwhile, both sides are tightening up their alliances and dramatically moving more military forces not just to the Ukrainian borders but to other theaters as well. Until the fighting, however violent and conventional, expands out of the Ukrainian Donbas or triggers opportunistic aggressions in, for example, the Middle East, the Koreas, the South China Sea, Taiwan, or even the Baltic States, then Defcon 5 remains warranted. 

William Dudley Bass
Tuesday 6 April 2021
Thursday 8 April 2021
Seattle, Washington
Cascadia
Earth
Sol

Post Script for Thursday 29 April 2021
The DEFCON level was recently lowered all the way back to 5 nearly a week ago. Some raised it up to level 3 at one point. It does seem the leaders of the planet’s most dangerous military forces are playing feint games of bravado, hide and seek, and mobilization practices. While the threat of a war few actually want has declined, instability in East Asia and in Eastern Europa remain high. There are other areas of instability, too, such as in the Horn of Africa and along the Colombian-Venezuelan frontier, but they do not represent the threat of global nuclear war.

Copyright © 2021 by William Dudley Bass. All Rights Reserved by the Author & his Descendants until we Humans establish Wise Stewardship over and for our Earth and Solarian Commons. Thank you.